Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s Week 12 College Football slate.
12 p.m. ET: Louisville at Miami (pick, 46)
Louisville (9-1, ranked 10th) has won three straight and just took down Virginia 31-24 but failed to cover as 20.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Miami (6-4) has last two straight and just fell to Florida State 27-20 but covered as 14.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Louisville listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public sees the layup of the century with Louisville, has has the better record and ranking. However, despite 65% of bets backing Louisville, the line has fallen to a pick’em or even moved to Miami -1 at home. Normally if a team is getting two-thirds of bets, you would see the line move in their favor. However, this line has moved away from popular Louisville toward unpopular Miami, signaling smart money backing the home team. Miami is only getting 35% of bets but 52% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Miami also has fishy buy-low value as an unranked team at a pick’em price against a sell-high ranked team (shouldn’t this line be higher in favor of Louisville?). Normally, if it looks too good to be true, it is. Miami is 5-1 at home this season. Louisville is 1-1 on the road.
2:30 p.m. ET: Utah at Arizona (-1, 46.5)
Utah (7-3, ranked 22nd) has dropped two of their last three games and just fell to Washington 35-28 but managed to cover as 9-point road dogs. On the flip side, Arizona (7-3, ranked 17th) has won four straight and just beat Colorado 34-31 but failed to cover as 8.5-point road favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick’em. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen Arizona creep up from a pick to -1. Normally, if the tickets are even a line shouldn’t move at all. So we know this small and subtle move is evidence or pros siding with Arizona at home. Arizona is only receiving 52% of bets but 58% of money, a sharp bet split. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 20-2 straight up (91%) this season and 151-33 straight up (82%) since 2016. Arizona is -115 on the moneyline. Arizona is a perfect 5-0 ATS against ranked teams this season. Arizona also has buy-low value as a team who didn’t cover last week against a sell-high team that did cover. Arizona will lean on their offensive advantage, averaging 31 PPG compared to 25 PPG for Utah.
7:30 p.m. ET: Washington at Oregon State (-1, 62)
Washington (10-0, ranked 5th) is undefeated and just outlasted Utah 35-28 but failed to cover as 9-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oregon State (8-2, ranked 11th) has won five of their last six games and just crushed Stanford 62-17, easily covering as 21.5-point home favorites. This game opened with Washington listed as high as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Washington, who has a better record, higher ranking and features a Heisman candidate in QB Michael Penix Jr. However, despite 75% of bets backing Washington, we’ve seen this line flip to Oregon State -1 or even -1.5 at some shops. The line even reached as high as Oregon State -2.5 at times throughout the week. Essentially, we are looking at sharp reverse line movement on Oregon State, with pros backing the home team despite the public falling in love with the trendy dog Huskies. Oregon State also features classic “dog to favorite” wiseguy movement. Oregon State is only receiving 25% of bets but 50% of money, giving the Beavers excellent contrarian value in the most heavily bet primetime game of the night, plus a notable sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 20-2 straight up (91%) this season and 151-33 straight up (82%) since 2016. Oregon State is -120 on the moneyline. Oregon State is 17-1 at home in the last three seasons. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 64 to 62 despite 78% of bets taking the under. The forecast calls for high 40s, rain and 5-10 MPH winds.
7:30 p.m. ET: Kentucky at South Carolina (-2, 52)
Kentucky (6-4) has dropped four of their last five games and just got rolled by Alabama 49-21, failing to cover as 11-point home dogs. Meanwhile, South Carolina (4-6) has won two straight games and just crushed Vanderbilt 47-6, easily covering as 13.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public is all over Kentucky laying a short spread, especially since their have a better won-loss record. However, despite 66% of bets backing Kentucky, we’ve seen this line flip to South Carolina -2. Essentially, we are looking at sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of South Carolina. The Gamecocks are only receiving 34% of bets, making them a top contrarian play in a heavily bet primetime game. Also, why is a 4-6 team favored over a 6-4 team? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? If it looks fishy, there is usually a reason for it. South Carolina is 4-1 at home this season. South Carolina is -125 on the moneyline. South Carolina also has a motivational edge, as they must win their final two games to become Bowl Eligible.